ICC world cup predictions
A prediction competition was conducted in Zyxware, in connection with the ICC World Cup 2015. The competition was aimed at testing our analytic skills, general knowledge, and having pure fun.
The number of participants was much more than I expected. Needless to say, it added some real flavour and fun to the competition.
The rules of the game were pretty simple; you had to predict the results and figures of a match. There were ‘Treasure Questions’ which would help earn bonus points apart from the routine predictions.
For group stage matches, participants had to predict five results - Toss, score of team 1, score of team 2, the winner, and Man of the match. Each of the correct predictions will get 5 points and no negative points. For quarter-final matches, there were seven results to predict - top run scorer and highest wicket taker being the added prediction topics compared to the group stage matches. The teams had to make at least three right predictions in order to get the points. Otherwise, they would get 10 negative points. From semi-final matches onward, there were 9 options to predict - the highest run scorer from each of the teams and also the highest wicket taker from each team being the additional options compared to the group stage matches. Correct predictions were given 10 points. Again, the teams had to get at least 3 options correct to get the points. Otherwise there will be a deduction of 15 points.
These rules helped some teams with lesser points come on top, and at times it made things even more complicated. The rule of negative points also helped to see table standings fluctuating.
We were bit late in starting the competition; it started only after 8 matches. The points table was in a disarray after the matches and it was impossible to confirm the best predictors even before the World Cup Final.
After the completion of group stage matches, Chithra and Tiju were at the top of the table with 425 points and 415 points; they were the second best. At the end of quarter final matches, Fathima and Glen came at the top (520 points and 475 being the second best) of the points table, but they couldn’t keep up for long. After the completion of the semi-final matches, Chithra and Tiju again came on top with 530 points (515 being the second best), but bigger troubles awaited them at the end.
Deepak and Yaser came at the top occasionally between the matches, but couldn’t sustain it. At times teams, Jijo and Rizwan and Anoop and Vishnu seemed to be leading but couldn’t make it really.
There were instances when teams made all the correct predictions for a match. Some even correctly predicted the occurrence of rain.
At the end of the competition, the team of Krithiga and Rajula emerged as winners.
Final standings - total 15 teams participated.
- Krithiga & Rajula - 575 points.
- Chithra and Tiju - 565 points.
- Fathima and Glen - 530 points.
It seemed people didn’t use analytics and logics when they predicted India’s fortunes. Some were in fact prompted only by their desire to favour India, while certain others predicted rationally which were against India’s chances. Once India was out of the competition, it appeared that everybody lost real interest. I think if India had lost early, this competition may not have worked out well.
There was a bit of confusion in terms of a clear set of rules and delay in updating the scores. Despite these, everybody participated with great enthusiasm. Another interesting point is the active participation of people who don’t really follow cricket. At the end, it taught me some management lessons and gave me more insights into using Google Spreadsheets!